Frozen, Not Broken: London’s Housing Market is Resetting — Not Collapsing

It’s easy to scroll through the headlines and assume the housing market’s in trouble. Prices down. Listings up. Confidence low.
But as CIBC’s Ben Tal told the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference — this isn’t the end; it’s the reset.

“We’re in a per-capita recession,” Tal said. “Inflation is no longer the issue. The Bank of Canada now has a green light to cut.”

That’s the spark we’ve been waiting for.

The National Chill — and the Coming Thaw

After years of abnormal highs, we’re normalizing the abnormal. Tal believes rate cuts are coming — 25bps soon, maybe another early 2026 — because the economy is already cold enough.
Housing’s “frozen” because affordability’s stretched: homes are too pricey to buy, yet not profitable enough to build.

But that’s exactly what sets up the rebound.

Once borrowing costs drop, activity reignites fast — especially in markets like London that are sitting on solid fundamentals.

The Local Picture: London & St. Thomas Snapshot

From LSTAR’s September 2025 data:

• 🏘️ 1,701 new listings (+13.7% YoY)
  
  

• 💸 534 sales (down 6%)
  
  

• 🧭 Buyer’s market confirmed: 31.4% sales-to-new-listing ratio
  
  

• 💰 Average price: $622,805 (down 2.7% from August)
  
  Source: LSTAR, October 2025

With six months of inventory now available, buyers finally have room to breathe — and negotiate.

Across Canada, London–St. Thomas sits mid-pack at a $562,300 benchmark price, making it one of the most affordable mid-sized regions in Ontario.

Economic Ripple Effect

Each home sale still triggers roughly $89,000 in local economic activity — movers, legal fees, renovations, appliances — adding up to $47 million in September alone. That’s not a frozen market. That’s a sleeping giant waiting for better rates.

Local Sentiment: Hope with Realism

A Nanos/LSTAR survey showed:

• 52% of residents would live in a factory-built home

• 59% support the 30-year mortgage for first-time buyers

• Confidence in rising home values is the lowest since 2019 — but optimism remains around St. Thomas’ job growth and industrial boom.
  
  People haven’t given up. They’re just waiting for a reason to jump back in.

Final Word: Preparation Wins

Ben Tal ended with cautious optimism:

“This is the biggest test since 1991… but we’re close to the bottom.”

That means the smart move now isn’t fear — it’s strategy.

Check your mortgage renewal. Reassess your budget. Talk to someone who can position you for the next upswing.

Because when the thaw hits, opportunity moves fast.