It’s easy to scroll through the headlines and assume the housing market’s in trouble. Prices down. Listings up. Confidence low.
But as CIBC’s Ben Tal told the Mortgage Professionals Canada conference — this isn’t the end; it’s the reset.
“We’re in a per-capita recession,” Tal said. “Inflation is no longer the issue. The Bank of Canada now has a green light to cut.”
That’s the spark we’ve been waiting for.
The National Chill — and the Coming Thaw
After years of abnormal highs, we’re normalizing the abnormal. Tal believes rate cuts are coming — 25bps soon, maybe another early 2026 — because the economy is already cold enough.
Housing’s “frozen” because affordability’s stretched: homes are too pricey to buy, yet not profitable enough to build.
But that’s exactly what sets up the rebound.
Once borrowing costs drop, activity reignites fast — especially in markets like London that are sitting on solid fundamentals.
The Local Picture: London & St. Thomas Snapshot
From LSTAR’s September 2025 data:
🏘️ 1,701 new listings (+13.7% YoY)
💸 534 sales (down 6%)
🧭 Buyer’s market confirmed: 31.4% sales-to-new-listing ratio
💰 Average price: $622,805 (down 2.7% from August)
Source: LSTAR, October 2025
With six months of inventory now available, buyers finally have room to breathe — and negotiate.
Across Canada, London–St. Thomas sits mid-pack at a $562,300 benchmark price, making it one of the most affordable mid-sized regions in Ontario.
Economic Ripple Effect
Each home sale still triggers roughly $89,000 in local economic activity — movers, legal fees, renovations, appliances — adding up to $47 million in September alone. That’s not a frozen market. That’s a sleeping giant waiting for better rates.
Local Sentiment: Hope with Realism
A Nanos/LSTAR survey showed:
52% of residents would live in a factory-built home
59% support the 30-year mortgage for first-time buyers
Confidence in rising home values is the lowest since 2019 — but optimism remains around St. Thomas’ job growth and industrial boom.
People haven’t given up. They’re just waiting for a reason to jump back in.
Final Word: Preparation Wins
Ben Tal ended with cautious optimism:
“This is the biggest test since 1991… but we’re close to the bottom.”
That means the smart move now isn’t fear — it’s strategy.
Check your mortgage renewal. Reassess your budget. Talk to someone who can position you for the next upswing.
Because when the thaw hits, opportunity moves fast.
